Hard to ever predict what management will do.
Based on what you say, you seem to be the obvious choice.
But I can just as easily see them thinking that if they promote you and someone fills your role production will go down.
If they promote the other person and leave you where you're at production remains at the current level.
It looks like they're leaning towards you, but only you have a true feel for the situation.
Do you want the position?
Or are you just hoping to be asked?
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