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Have we hit bottom yet?

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
Wow, sure is wild out there. I am seeing houses in my area sell for pre 1990's prices.

Buyers are buying them up (with multiple offers). Yet, the reports I read say there are still high number of home owners going into foreclosure (at least thousands).:cry:

Bringing more foreclosures into the market should lower prices even more.:cry:

Looks to me we here in L.A. haven't hit bottom yet, and it doesn't even look close.

Whats it like in your area? I am particularly curious outside the U.S. :bounce:
Chile today, Hot Tamale!
Chile today, Hot Tamale!
post #2 of 16
I can only speak for the UK, but our vastly inflated prices (much higher, pro-rata, than many in the States - you get much less for your money here!) seem to going down dramatically.

My next door but one neighbour's home - detached, 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom - early 1800s - has dropped nearly 90K :o Prices appear set to go down further. However, if like us, you bought a long time ago - well, we just have to ride out this recession.

Edited to add: that's 90K GB pounds, not dollars!
post #3 of 16
I tend to believe that we haven't seen the bottom yet. I think it will take at least a year for the stimulus to have any effect, if at all (and seeing what AIG if pulling that is a big if). In my area, the home market isn't bottoming out like in other areas as our home prices weren't terribly over-inflated, but its tough to sell as no one is buying. That's the upside. The downside is our economy is on the verge of collapse as more and more paper mills shut down and/or lay off. It seems every time I turn around Kimberly-Clark is laying off more people.
post #4 of 16

No Bottom Yet

Here in Calif wine country, we are hanging on. The exactly the phrase. This winter was very slim but we're used to that. Summer tourist season is when we make it. Few of us believe this year will be strong enough to save the borderline businesses. Each AM it's look to see who's closed or closing. But we think the situation will stablize this spring, stay flat through 2009 and begin to recover in spring 2010.
post #5 of 16
I live and own a business right smack dab in the middle of tourist heaven! Most restaurants--unlike mine!--are seasonal here. They open for Mother's Day weekend and close just after Canadian Thanksgiving. I spoke to alot of restaurant owners last year when I was getting ready to open my patisserie and all of them said that they had had the worst tourist season ever and were seriously concerned about business. Even special events like the Encampment at Louisbourg failed to attract any attention.

I took my brother up the Cabot Trail last summer and it was like a desert wasteland...no one around. Normally the place is hopping with activity.

A friend of mine owns a little gift shop on the other side of the ferry and she said she's terrified to open and has delayed her opening by a month and has stockpiled enough cash to keep the place afloat for at least three months in case no tourists show up at all.

Scary times.

I'm doing well....we produce enough every day items like breads, rolls, and tea biscuits to attract alot of traffic. Even my luxury items like candy, specialty cakes, cheesecakes, etc do well. But I'm also a one of a kind shop on the island....that stands me in good stead.

As far as housing goes...I've seen alot homes on the market and for a long, long time. Housing is MUCH cheaper here than in other parts of the world. Still there is a cute house around the corner from here for sale for $37,000 and it's been empty for at least two years. The econony is horrible in Cape Breton. Very high unemployment rate....lots of plant closures just before Christmas and reportedly more to come. Very sad.
post #6 of 16
Thread Starter 
$37K is the downpayment for an average home here! :bounce:

A friend of ours goes to Vail, CO every January for 3 weeks. He said that compared to the last 15 years, this is the slowest he has ever seen the place. I guess the rich are hunkering down too.
Chile today, Hot Tamale!
Chile today, Hot Tamale!
post #7 of 16
Well, if you've been watching the news, you'll be familiar with the unemployment issues in Elkhart County, Indiana. I live in Lagrange County to the east and our unemployment rate is almost as bad at 18% the last I heard which was several weeks ago. The county south of us is at 17%.

We see houses in foreclosure all over here. It seems the number of homes for sale increases everytime I leave home (which is only a couple of times a week).

My significant other works on foreclosed homes for a national mortgage company. You'd think he would have plenty of work right now but that's just not how it is. He is only getting 2-3 days a week for several months now because the mortgage company can't sell the homes. They are no longer doing anything to the homes other than winterization and spring isn't a time they are concerned with that. When they're losing money on the homes they do sell, cleaning, painting, carpeting, etc. is not an option. Customers are buying the homes as is, if they buy at all.

It's pretty scary for us right now! We've talked about me finding something but when you look at the paper, there will be maybe 3 help wanted ads, asking for people with a specialized degree or license. Then there is half a page of people looking for work and these are not young, uneducated people. Some of these are people who have specialized skills but lost their jobs after 25+ years. Others are people who have degrees but simply can't find a job. It's quite intimidating for someone like me who has been out of the work force for almost 5 years!
post #8 of 16
First, except in rare local areas, the 'stimulus' package is nothing but the most massive pork program since FDR and that didn't get us out of the depression either.

So don't expect that to help, but expect a lot of people to take credit for it getting us out of the recession when it happens naturally.

As for if you hit bottom yet, it will greatly depend on how badly the prices were inflated in your area. Here in the midwest/chicago area we have been hit perhaps the least since the insanity was mostly on the coasts. I think we are pretty close to bottom for the home prices.
post #9 of 16


"First, except in rare local areas, the 'stimulus' package is nothing but the most massive pork program since FDR and that didn't get us out of the depression either."

So don't expect that to help, but expect a lot of people to take credit for it getting us out of the recession when it happens naturally.

Is this the place to put your politics and opinions out there? I come here to take my mind off that stuff. Other forums might be better.
post #10 of 16
I didn't think this was political. This site does not DO political. Asking about how house prices are faring in your area is hardly polititcal... or is it?
post #11 of 16
Housing prices here are strange to say the least. The area we are in did not see the gains that other areas of the country did. That's not to say there weren't modest gains over the last few years but nothing in the way of a 700sqft closet once selling for 110,000.00 now selling for 700,000.00. We have seen a leveling off of things and a slight decline of some values maybe along the lines of 7-8% but that is only because of the market switching from a Sellers to a buyers.

The city we live in is also 98% developed and is an "Independent City". This signifies that we are not under the County Government control and have our own systems of Government in place. This makes us a "more desirable" market and will hopefully play out in the coming years. This same benefit has also contributed to some complex issues surrounding the area real estate and the BRAC Commission announcement of a couple years ago. It's a really long and drawn out explanation but the short of it is too many folks jumped the gun thinking they were going to cash in quickly. Their impatience has caused the area to become to too heavy with vacant/for sale property. Area Realtors have stated that the Tri-Cities will most likely be the first to really recover any of the lost ground in Richmond but it will take until the Base Improvements and redeployment to the area is completed in the next 5 years or so.

I think what's important for any homeowner to understand is that a home is really something you are in for the long haul. Unfortunately the trend the last few years saw folks going in to the idea of home ownership to pad their portfolios. For the most part folks were looking for a return on investment in 1-3 years instead of the 10-15 that was once the norm.

It's my personal opinion that the biggest issue we have to face is the fact that you CAN NOT buy a home for oh let's say 250,000.00 with mortgage terms that are not "user friendly", (and by user friendly I mean 15-30 year fixed rate with no balloon payment in the 3rd, 5th and 7th years like some out there have) then renovate the crap out of it and try to sell it for 750,000.00 in 2 years. Just so you don't have to make the payments you cannot afford! That may have worked for some but look where we are because of that thought process.

Real Estate will always be a good sound investment if you are responsible about it. Yet the key word is responsible but I guess that can apply to most everything. It probably will never again be the "true" investment we saw back in the late 70's and early 80's when land was scooped up by developers from families, and the latest trend has shown that to be true. There really is no such thing as a fast buck. We have to realize that we are who we are here because of hard work not ............. "snake oil salesmanship".
post #12 of 16
Thread Starter 
OldSchool, I agree with you. seems like your area was similar to ours, where tiny homes in areas that were considered "ghetto" (where I bought my first 'affordable" home) went from $150k to $500K in less than three years.

Now there are so many "REO" properties for sale with the houses going for $150-200K. Interestingly enough is that every house in that price range is being bought up quickly and with multiple offers.

:crazy:Just like how the inflated prices started in the first place!!!:crazy:

The point if my post is not political, I am wanting to see how the real estate market is going around the country to see the similaritiues, if any. TO get a feel for how things are now, and where they are going. :bounce:
Chile today, Hot Tamale!
Chile today, Hot Tamale!
post #13 of 16

I apologize but my computer had a glitch this morning. I typed a couple words in addition to a whole other paragraph that was missing. It kinda changed the meaning and I have corrected it in an edit.

I would add that the bidding thing is not that bad as long as......oh what the he11 am I saying. There's not a person that will keep it with-in reason and the whole cycle will start all over again. Only this time the lenders need to say a resounding NO! The house is not worth that much and only lend what they say the house is valued at. That will truly keep the bidding process in check. JMHO

By the way...... We have relocated 3 times in the last 10 years and each time we sell, we take it in the shorts. That just follows my point earlier about the long term investment. We just have to stop relocating for employment reasons. I will add that...... Gawd! I wish we could have had something....anything even remotely close to a bidding war!:lol: Unfortunately our bidding wars started with a low-ball offer and eventually moved closer to the listing price.:crazy:
post #14 of 16
Its far from over. Now some banks are giving more creative mortgages and allowing refinance. the same thing will happen again in about 3-5 years because these same people who couldnt afford the house in the beginning are refinancing and the greedy banks are taking it. We had an 80 year old man in Palm Beach wih borderlind altheimers
put 18,000 down on a 24000. house and get a 30 year mortgage. When he pays it he will be 110 years old buried somewhere. The banks deserve to go out of business and government will be the bank, simply print more money.
post #15 of 16
Ontario, Canada
I don't think we've bottomed out yet but the gov't introduced some nice tax incentives for first time home owners and with the lowering prices of houses, younger kids like myself are having an easier time putting down on a new home. However the down side is that, at least here, property taxes have gone up. We may be able to afford to buy the house but for how long can we live in it? Hydro prices are predicted to also increase so that doesn't help matters. Plus a number of small cities and towns in this province relies heavily on the auto sector plus all the small manufactures who supply the Big 3 with parts and materials.
post #16 of 16
i really hope we're done with hitting bottom and start working up to fix the economy. .
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