In what ways do you think "belly" will help?
In terms of overall manufacturing quality and edge taking, the Shun is sort of halfway between the Fujiwara FKM and the Konosuke HD. There are a couple of things I really dislike about the Shun -- including way too much rocker, too much belly (in the limited, technical sense), too-high tip, lack of feedback, etc. -- any or all of which may or may not apply to you. If you do like Shun type knives, and want an 8", 8" Premier is a very good value at its sale price. Otherwise, you pay a very stiff premium for the (tsuchime) finish, and the Premier line is vastly overpriced for VG-10 san-mai. As a rule, a 10" knife is a better choice than an 8" as long as you're willing to master the (very easy) skills necessary to control the extra length.
The Fujiwara is a decent but unspectacular knife at a very good price. In other words, entry level.
I really like the Kono, probably wrote some of the stuff which influenced your choice, but can't say if it's a particularly good choice for you or not. Also, if you're interested in a high-end laser and aren't wedded to the idea of semi-stainless, there are a number of other brands as good as Konosuke.
$50 is on the very low side for even a good combi-stone. "Adequate" as to sharpening, especially if you know what you're doing. But the stone will have issues in terms of how fast it cuts, how fast it wears, how much flattening it requires, how easily it crumbles on the sides and edges, etc., and may not satisfy you for long. Beginners especially do themselves a large disservice by choosing cheap, hard to use tools, and are better off spending a little more to avoid their disadvantages.
Whether or not you're going to want a honing rod (aka "steel") as well as a set of stones depends on which knife you ultimately choose, as well on which knives you already have and/or plan to buy in the future. Really good rods are relatively inexpensive, the 12" Idahone fine ceramic runs less than $40.
If you take good advice and focus on learning, it will take 6 - 15 edges (three to twelve hours on the stones) before you begin to develop the basic skills of angle holding, drawing a burr, and deburring to the point where you know what you're doing and can consistently sharpen a reasonably good edge. I've been sharpening for more than forty five years and am still learning and improving.
As long as you don't try and learn to sharpen with a coarse grit stone (say lower than 800# JIS) it's unlikely you'll do anything to hurt your knife. A lot of people like to learn to sharpen on inexpensive knives; and while it isn't a bad idea, I don't think it's that big a deal.
If you do go with an entry-level knife like the Fujiwara or a mid-priced option like the Shun, depending on which other knives you frequently use, you may want to consider some sort of gag -- like a Minosharp3 or a Chef's Choice Electric -- instead of stones. You'll get good if unspectacular results right off the bat for around $80. I'm not trying to handicap any particular sharpening solution as "best for you," just letting you know that there are options.
Lots to think about,
Edited by boar_d_laze - 6/30/12 at 9:41am